Recent update on COVID-19 in India: Is locking down the country enough?

  1. Jitender Singh Virk
  2. Syed Azmal Ali
  3. Gurjeet Kaur

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Abstract

Background

India is the second-largest population in the world, and it is not well equipped, hitherto, in the scenario of the global pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 could impart a devastating impact on the Indian population. Only way to respond against this critical condition is by practicing large-scale social distancing. India lock down for 21 days, however, till 7 April 2020, SARS- CoV-2 positive cases were growing exponentially, which raises the concerns if the number of reported and actual cases are similar.

Methods

We use Lasso Regression with α = 0.12 and Polynomial features of degree 2 to predict the growth factor. Also, we predicted Logistic curve using the Prophet Python. Further, using the growth rate to logistic, and carrying capacity is 20000 allowed us to calculate the maximum cases and new cases per day.

Results

We found the predicted growth factor with a standard deviation of 0.3443 for the upcoming days. When the growth factor becomes 1.0, which is known as Inflection point, it will be safe to state that the rate is no longer exponential. The estimated time to reach the inflection point is between 15-20 April. At that time, the estimated number of total positive cases will be over 12500, if lockdown remains continue.

Conclusions

Our analysis suggests that there is an urgent need to take action to extend the period of lockdown and allocate enough resources, including personnel, beds, and intensive care facilities, to manage the situation in the next few days and weeks. Otherwise, the outbreak in India can reach the level of the USA or Italy or could be worse than these countries within a few days or weeks, given the size of the population and lack of resources.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.06.20053124: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.06.20053124v2 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.06.20053124v1 on medRxiv