Validation of reported risk factors for disease classification and prognosis in COVID-19: a descriptive and retrospective study

  1. Li Tan
  2. Xia Kang
  3. Xinran Ji
  4. Qi Wang
  5. Yongsheng Li
  6. Qiongshu Wang
  7. Hongming Miao

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Abstract

Risk indicators viral load (ORF1ab Ct), lymphocyte percentage (LYM%), C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), procalcitonin (PCT) and lactic acid (LA) in COVID-19 patients have been proposed in recent studies. However, the predictive effects of those indicators on disease classification and prognosis remains largely unknown. We dynamically measured those reported indicators in 132 cases of COVID-19 patients including the moderate-cured (moderated and cured), severe-cured (severe and cured) and critically ill (died). Our data showed that CRP, PCT, IL-6, LYM%, lactic acid and viral load could predict prognosis and guide classification of COVID-19 patients in different degrees. CRP, IL-6 and LYM% were more effective than other three factors in predicting prognosis. For disease classification, CRP and LYM% were sensitive in identifying the types between critically ill and severe (or moderate). Notably, among the investigated factors, LYM% was the only one that could distinguish between the severe and moderate types. Collectively, we concluded that LYM% was the most sensitive and reliable predictor for disease typing and prognosis. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the precise classification and prognosis prediction are critical for saving the insufficient medical resources, stratified treatment and improving the survival rate of critically ill patients. We recommend that LYM% be used independently or in combination with other indicators in the management of COVID-19.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.05.20053769: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board StatementIRB: This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the hospital.
    Consent: All subjects signed informed consent forms at admission to hospital.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    Statistical methods: In this study, GraphPad 8.01 software was used for data statistics and mapping.
    GraphPad
    suggested: (GraphPad Prism, RRID:SCR_002798)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.05.20053769v1 on medRxiv