Parametric analysis of early data on COVID-19 expansion in selected European countries

  1. Martin Spousta

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Abstract

We analyze the early data on COVID-19 expansion in selected European countries using an analytical parametric model. A description of the time dependence of the disease expansion and a method to evaluate trends of the expansion are proposed. Several features are observed in the data, namely a high predictability of the expansion of disease in Italy and a convergence of the “pushback” parameter towards a limiting value in all the countries where restrictive measures have been adopted. Basic predictions for the evolution of the disease expansion are made for selected countries with a stable evolution in the parametric space of the model. The findings presented here should contribute to the understanding of the behavior of the disease expansion and the role of the restrictive measures on the evolution of the expansion.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.31.20049155: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.03.31.20049155v1 on medRxiv