Early behavior of Madrid Covid-19 disease outbreak: A mathematical model
This article has been Reviewed by the following groups
Listed in
- Evaluated articles (ScreenIT)
Abstract
Introduction
Madrid Covid-19 disease outbreak started on 28 February 2020 and since then it became the main Covid-19 disease cluster in Spain. On 26 March 2020, a total of 17166 cases were already reported, with 2090 deaths. Globally a R 0 index of 2-3 has been reported. We aimed to build an experimental mathematical model that help to analyze the early characteristics of Madrid Covid-19 disese outbreak and to explore the actual R0 index on Madrid Covid-19 outbreak.
Material and Methods
A simulated mathematical model was built, based on a SIR epidemiological model and the reported characteristics of Wuhan Covid-19 disease outbreak. Monte Carlo simulations were further done to estimate the R 0 value over time in the Madrid Covid-19 disease outbreak.
Results
Mean estimated R0 value along the early period is of 2.22 (+/-1.21 SD). A significant increase of 0.093 (+/-0.037, p=0.025) in R0 value each day of outbreak is found.
Conclussions
Our proposed Mathematical Simulation model may be useful to evaluate early characteristics of this outbreak. The present work is the first reported estimation of R0 value in the Spanish Madrid Covid-19 outbreak, with similar results to the previous reported in the Wuhan outbreak, although it may suggest a slightly increase on R0 along time.
Article activity feed
-
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.30.20047019: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank…
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.30.20047019: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
-
