Estimation of protection for COVID-19 in children from epidemiological information and estimate effect of policy in Japan

  1. Junko Kurita
  2. Yoshiyuki Sugishita
  3. Tamie Sugawara
  4. Yasushi Ohkusa

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Abstract

Background

Incidence in children was much less than in adults during the COVID-19 outbreak. Sports and entertainment events were canceled (VEC) in Japan for two weeks during 26 February – 13 March. Most schools were closed (SC).

Object

We construct a susceptible–infected–recovered model using three age classes and estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) and protection level among children simultaneously. Then we simulate SC and VEC effects.

Method

We used data of patients with symptoms in Japan during 14 January to assess SC and VEC introduction. Effects of SC and VEC were incorporated into the model through change in the contact pattern or frequencies among age classes.

Results

Results suggest R 0 as 2.86 [95%CI of 2.73, 2.97]. The protection level was estimated as 0.4 [0.2, 0.7]. SC and VEC can reduce the total number of patients significantly, by 6–7%.

Discussion and Conclusion

The estimated R 0 was similar to that found from other studies in China and Japan. We found a significant protection level among children, and by effects of SC and VEC. Introduction

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.27.20045252: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.03.27.20045252v1 on medRxiv