Moving-average based index to timely evaluate the current epidemic situation after COVID-19 outbreak

  1. He Yun-ting
  2. Wang Xiao-jin
  3. He Hao
  4. Zhai Jing
  5. Wang Bing-shun

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Abstract

A pneumonia outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) occurred in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019 and then spread rapidly to the whole country. A total of 81,498 laboratory-confirmed cases, including 3,267 deaths (4.0%) had been reported in China by March 22, 2020, meanwhile, 210,644 laboratory-confirmed cases and 9,517 deaths (4.5%) were reported outside China. Common symptoms of COVID-19 pneumonia included fever, fatigue and dry cough. In face of such a sudden outbreak of emerging novel infectious diseases, we have no history to learn from and no evidence to count on. Traditional models often predict inconsistent results. There is an urgent need to establish a practical data-driven method to predict the evolutionary trend of the epidemic, track and prejudge the current epidemic situation after the COVID-19 outbreak. Here we propose a simple, directly and generally applicable index and we name it ‘epidemic evaluation index’ (EEI), which is constructed by 7-day moving average of the log-transformed daily new cases (LMA). EEI could be used to support the decision-making process and epidemic prevention and control strategies through the evaluation of the current epidemic situation. First, we used SARS epidemic data from Hong Kong in 2003 to verify the practicability of the new index, which shows that the index is acceptable. The EEI was then applied to the COVID-19 epidemic situation analysis. We found that the trend direction of different districts in China changed on different date during the epidemic. At the national level and at local Hubei Province level, the epidemic both peaked on February 9. While the peak occurred relatively earlier, i.e. on February 5 in other provinces. It demonstrated the effectiveness of decisive action and implementations of control measures made by Chinese governments. While local governments should adjust management measures based on local epidemic situation. Although the epidemic has eased since late February, continued efforts in epidemic control are still required to prevent transmission of imported cases in China. However, the global COVID-19 epidemic outside China continues to expand as indicated by the EEI we proposed. Currently, efforts have been made worldwide to combat the novel coronavirus pandemic. People all over the world should work together and governments of all countries should take efficient measures in the light of Chinas experience and according to national circumstances and local conditions.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.24.20027730: (What is this?)

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    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    The new EEI we proposed avoids these limitations and is more intuitive and reliable with only officially released data. The EEI aims to monitor and evaluate the epidemic in time, not to make predictions. It adopts another idea to provide timely decision support for epidemic prevention strategies. Regarding the COVID-19 epidemic situation, it can be concluded that whether in Hubei Province or throughout the country, the trend has entered a period of decline due to many measures taken in time. In 2003, public health measures including individual isolation, quarantine, social distancing and community containment once played decisive roles in controlling the SARS epidemic(Wilder-Smith and Freedman 2020). During the COVID-19 epidemic, the Chinese government learned lessons from the experience of SARS epidemic and adopted emergency measures related to population prevention and clinical treatment after the outbreak. Compared with the prevention and control of previous SARS epidemic, significant progress has been made during the COVID-19 epidemic (Guan and Xian 2020). On January 20, 43 days after the first unexplained pneumonia case occurred, traffic control was implemented in Wuhan. 3 days later, on January 23, Wuhan city was closed. 2 days later, on January 25, all provinces in China except Tibet triggered a level 1 public health emergency response. As can be seen from figure 2A, 2B, 3A and 3B, the peak of daily new laboratory-confirmed cases in mainland China and Hubei province we...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

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    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.03.24.20027730v2 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.03.24.20027730v1 on medRxiv