The impact of temperature and absolute humidity on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak - evidence from China

  1. Peng Shi
  2. Yinqiao Dong
  3. Huanchang Yan
  4. Xiaoyang Li
  5. Chenkai Zhao
  6. Wei Liu
  7. Miao He
  8. Shixing Tang
  9. Shuhua Xi

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Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the impact of temperature and absolute humidity on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak.

DESIGN

Ecological study.

SETTING

31 provincial-level regions in mainland China.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Data on COVID-19 incidence and climate between Jan 20 and Feb 29, 2020.

RESULTS

The number of new confirm COVID-19 cases in mainland China peaked on Feb 1, 2020. COVID-19 daily incidence were lowest at -10 °C and highest at 10 °C, while the maximum incidence was observed at the absolute humidity of approximately 7 g/m 3 . COVID-19 incidence changed with temperature as daily incidence decreased when the temperature rose. No significant association between COVID-19 incidence and absolute humidity was observed in distributed lag nonlinear models. Additionally, A modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (M-SEIR) model confirmed that transmission rate decreased with the increase of temperature, leading to further decrease of infection rate and outbreak scale.

CONCLUSION

Temperature is an environmental driver of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. Lower and higher temperatures might be positive to decrease the COVID-19 incidence. M-SEIR models help to better evaluate environmental and social impacts on COVID-19.

What is already known on this topic

  • Many infectious diseases present an environmental pattern in their incidence.

  • Environmental factors, such as climate and weather condition, could drive the space and time correlations of infectious diseases, including influenza.

  • Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can be transmitted through aerosols, large droplets, or direct contact with secretions (or fomites) as influenza virus can.

  • Little is known about environmental pattern in COVID-19 incidence.

What this study adds

  • The significant association between COVID-19 daily incidence and temperature was confirmed, using 3 methods, based on the data on COVID-19 and weather from 31 provincial-level regions in mainland China.

  • Environmental factors were considered on the basis of SEIR model, and a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (M-SEIR) model was developed.

  • Simulations of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan presented similar effects of temperature on incidence as the incidence decrease with the increase of temperature.

Article activity feed

  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.22.20038919: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    Our analysis is subject to limitations. First, the COVID-19 dynamics are determined by multiple factors, including virus, climate, socio-economic development, population mobility, population immunity, and urbanization. However, not all those factors were considered in this study. Second, the parameters of M-SEIR models were optimized, based on the previous analysis which might be biased by the lack of official data and the adjustment of diagnostic criteria in the outbreak. Third, it’s an ecological analysis in very short period so that we cannot avoid the bias caused by other ecological factors changed over time. Conclusions and public health implications: Temperature is an environmental driver of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. Lower and higher temperatures might be positive to decrease the COVID-19 incidence. As predicted in M-SEIR model, the COVID-19 outbreak would peak around March 5, 2020 and end in late April in Wuhan. Modified-SEIR models help to better evaluate and identify national and international prevention and intervention targeted COVID-19. The COVID-19 outbreak would not last for a long period of time with the increase of temperature, but the scale of the outbreak would be influenced by the measures taken among countries.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.03.22.20038919v1 on medRxiv