Window of Opportunity for Mitigation to Prevent Overflow of ICU capacity in Chicago by COVID-19

  1. Sergei Maslov
  2. Nigel Goldenfeld

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Abstract

We estimate the growth in demand for ICU beds in Chicago during the emerging COVID-19 epidemic, using state-of-the-art computer simulations calibrated for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The questions we address are these:

  • Will the ICU capacity in Chicago be exceeded, and if so by how much?

  • Can strong mitigation strategies, such as lockdown or shelter in place order, prevent the overflow of capacity?

  • When should such strategies be implemented?

    • Our answers are as follows:

  • The ICU capacity may be exceeded by a large amount, probably by a factor of ten.

  • Strong mitigation can avert this emergency situation potentially, but even that will not work if implemented too late.

  • If the strong mitigation precedes April 1 st , then the growth of COVID-19 can be controlled and the ICU capacity could be adequate. The earlier the strong mitigation is implemented, the greater the probability that it will be successful. After around April 1 2020, any strong mitigation will not avert the emergency situation . In Italy, the lockdown occurred too late and the number of deaths is still doubling every 2.3 days. It is difficult to be sure about the precise dates for this window of opportunity, due to the inherent uncertainties in computer simulation. But there is high confidence in the main conclusion that it exists and will soon be closed.

    • Our conclusion is that, being fully cognizant of the societal trade-offs, there is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to avert a worst-case scenario in Chicago , but only with strong mitigation/lockdown implemented in the next week at the latest. If this window is missed, the epidemic will get worse and then strong mitigation/lockdown will be required after all, but it will be too late .

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    1. ScreenIT

      SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.20.20040048: (What is this?)

      Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

      Table 1: Rigor

      NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

      Table 2: Resources

      No key resources detected.

      Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

      Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

      Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

      Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

      Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

      Results from rtransparent:
      • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
      • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
      • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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    2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.03.20.20040048 on medRxiv