Role of meteorological temperature and relative humidity in the January-February 2020 propagation of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan, China

  1. Jose Alvarez-Ramirez
  2. Monica Meraz

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Abstract

Identified in December 2019, the 2019-nCoV emerged in Wuhan, China, and its spread increased rapidly, with cases arising across Mainland China and several other countries. By January 2020, the potential risks imposed by 2019-nCoV in human health and economical activity were promptly highlighted. Considerable efforts have been devoted for understanding the transmission mechanisms aimed to pursue public policies oriented to mitigate the number of infected and deaths. An important question requiring some attention is the role of meteorological variables (e.g., temperature and humidity) in the 2019-nCoV transmission. Correlations between meteorological temperature and relative humidity with the number of daily confirmed cases were explored in this work for the epicenter city of Wuhan, China for the period from 29 January to March 6, 2020. Long-term trend of temperature and relative humidity was obtained with a 14-days adjacent-averaging filter, and lagged correlations of the number of daily confirmed cases were explored. The analysis showed negative correlations between temperatures with the number of daily confirmed cases. Maximum correlations were found for 6-day lagged temperatures, which is likely reflecting the incubation period of the virus. It was postulated that the indoor crowding effect is responsible of the high incidence of 2019-nCoV cases, where low absolute humidity and close human contact facilitate the transport of aerosol droplets.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.19.20039164: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.03.19.20039164v1 on medRxiv