Assessing the Global Tendency of COVID-19 Outbreak

  1. Qinghe Liu
  2. Zhicheng Liu
  3. Junkai Zhu
  4. Yuhao Zhu
  5. Deqiang Li
  6. Zefei Gao
  7. Liuling Zhou
  8. Yuanbo Tang
  9. Xiang Zhang
  10. Junyan Yang
  11. Qiao Wang

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Abstract

COVID-19 is now widely spreading around the world as a global pandemic. In this report, we estimate the global tendency of COVID-19 and analyze the associated global epidemic risk, given that the status quo is continued without further measures being taken.

The results show that the global R 0 , excluding China, is estimated to be 2.49 (95% CI: 2.15 – 2.92). The United States, Germany, Italy and Spain have peak values over 100,000. According to dynamical model and cluster analysis, we category the globe into four type regional epicenters of the outbreak: Southeast Asia extending southward to Oceania, the Middle East, Western Europe and North America. Among them, Western Europe will become the major center of the outbreak. The peak values in Germany, Italy and Spain are estimated to be 105,903, 127,283 and 152,539, respectively. The United States is the country with the most serious outbreak trend. Based on the current control measures by Mar. 27, 2020, the peak value in the United States will reach 400,892. Above all, if the current control measures are maintained, the cumulative number of patients worldwide will be 1,442,523 (95% CI: 1,052,577 – 8,981,440). We also estimated the diagnosis rate, recovery rate and infection degree of each country or region, and use clustering algorithm to retrieve countries or regions with similar epidemic characteristics. Different suggestions are proposed for countries or regions in different clusters.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.18.20038224: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No funding statement was detected.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.03.18.20038224v4 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.03.18.20038224v3 on medRxiv
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  5. Version published to 10.1101/2020.03.18.20038224v1 on medRxiv