AAEDM: Theoretical Dynamic Epidemic Diffusion Model and Covid-19 Korea Pandemic Cases

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Abstract

This paper deals with an advanced analytical epidemic diffusion model which is capable to predict the status of epidemic impacts. This newly propose model well describes an epidemic growth and it could be widely applied into various topics including pathology, epidemiology, business and data sciences. The Advanced Analytical Epidemic Diffusion Model (AAEDM) is a dynamic diffusion prediction model which is theoretically intuitive and its tractable closed formula could be easily adapted into versatile Bigdata driven analytics including the machine learning system. This dynamic model is still an analytical model but the periods of prediction are segmented for adapting the values from the dataset when the data is available. The epidemiologically vital parameters which effect on the AAEDM are also introduced in this paper. The evaluation of this theoretical model based on the Covid-19 data in Korea has been accomplished with relative fair future prediction accuracies. Although this analytical model has been designed from a basic exponential growth model, the performance of the AAEDM is competitive with other Bigdata based simulation models. Since the AAEDM is relatively simple and handy, anyone can use this model into analyzing outbreak situations in his daily life.

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  1. SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.17.20037838: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.


    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.


    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.


    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.


    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.


    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.17.20037838: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources


    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.


    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore is not a substitute for expert review. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers) in the manuscript, and detects sentences that appear to be missing RRIDs. SciScore also checks to make sure that rigor criteria are addressed by authors. It does this by detecting sentences that discuss criteria such as blinding or power analysis. SciScore does not guarantee that the rigor criteria that it detects are appropriate for the particular study. Instead it assists authors, editors, and reviewers by drawing attention to sections of the manuscript that contain or should contain various rigor criteria and key resources. For details on the results shown here, please follow this link.