Modelling the epidemic 2019-nCoV event in Italy: a preliminary note

  1. Marco Claudio Traini
  2. Carla Caponi
  3. Giuseppe Vittorio De Socio

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Abstract

An analysis of the time evolution of the 2019-nCoV outbreak event in Italy is proposed and is based on the preliminary data at disposal (till March 11th, 2020) on one side, and on an epidemiological model recently used to describe the same epidemic event in the Wuhan region (February 2020) on the other side. The equations of the model include the description of compartments like Susceptible ( S ), exposed ( E ), infectious but not yet symptomatic (pre-symptomatic) ( A ), infectious with symptoms ( I ), hospitalized ( H ) and recovered ( R ). Further stratification includes quarantined susceptible ( S q ), isolated exposed ( E q ) and isolated infected ( I q ) compartments. The equations are numerically solved for boundary (initial) conditions tuned on the Italian event. The rôle of quarantine is specifically emphasized and supports the strategies adopted providing a numerical description of the effects.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.14.20034884: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.03.14.20034884 on medRxiv