Estimation of instant case fatality rate of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Hubei based on daily case notification data

  1. Lei Cao
  2. Ting-ting Huang
  3. Jun-xia Zhang
  4. Qi Qin
  5. Si-yu Liu
  6. Hui-min Xue
  7. Ya-xin Gong
  8. Chang-hua Ning
  9. Xiao-tong Shen
  10. Jia-xin Yang
  11. Yan-ni Mi
  12. Xue Xiao
  13. Yong-xiao Cao

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Abstract

Background

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) initially appeared and has most rapidly spread in Wuhan, China. The case fatality rate is the most direct indicator to assess the hazards of an infectious disease. We aimed to estimate the instant fatality rate and cure rate of COVID-19 in Wuhan City and its affiliated Hubei Province.

Methods

We collected the daily case notification data of COVID-19 from Dec 8, 2019 to Mar 10, 2020 in Wuhan City and Hubei Province officially announced by the Chinese authority. The numbers of daily confirmed/deaths/cured cases and the numbers of daily cumulative confirmed/deaths/cured cases were obtained. The death time and cure time of COVID-19 patients were calculated based on the dates of diagnosis, death and discharge of individual cases. Then the estimated diagnosis dates of deaths and cured cases were obtained on the basis of the median death or medium cure time, respectively. Finally, the instant fatality rate of COVID-19 was calculated according to the numbers of deaths and cured cases on the same estimated diagnosis dates.

Results

From Jan 1, 2020 to Feb 22, 2020 in Wuhan City, the instant case fatality rate of COVID-19 was 3.4%∼19.5% and the instant cured rate was 80.0%∼96.6%. The average fatality rate reached 11.4% while the average cure rate was 88.6%. During the same period in Hubei Province, the instant case fatality rate was 3.8%∼16.6% and the instant cured rate was 83.4%∼96.6%. The average fatality rate and the average cure rate were 9.2% and 91.8%, respectively.

Conclusions

The fatality rate and cure rate of COVID-19 in Wuhan City and Hubei Province were underestimated. Wuhan showed higher fatality rate and cure rate than the whole Hubei Province did.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.11.20034215: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    Statistical analysis: Excel 2016 and GraphPad Prism 8 were used to record, calculate and analyze data.
    Excel
    suggested: None
    GraphPad
    suggested: (GraphPad Prism, RRID:SCR_002798)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    This study has some limitations. The major influencing factors were mean cure time and death time. The death time was calculated based on the 134 death cases, and the cure time was based on 536 discharged cases. They may deviate from reality and affect the results. We suggest that the government discloses cases of infectious diseases for scientific study to share the resources. Accurate cure time and death time was obtained, it may help to accurately calculate the case fatality rate, and to provide a basis for prevention and control of infectious disease.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.03.11.20034215v1 on medRxiv