Effects of Chinese strategies for controlling the diffusion and deterioration of novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia in China

  1. Xiaoqiang Wang
  2. Weitian Tian
  3. Xin Lv
  4. Yumiao Shi
  5. Xiaoxin Zhou
  6. Weifeng Yu
  7. Diansan Su
  8. Jie Tian

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Abstract

Background

In December 2019, an outbreak of new type of coronavirus named COVID-19 occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. In a very short time, this virus spread rapidly over China, greatly threatening public health and economic development. The Chinese government acted quickly and implemented a series of strategies to prevent diffusion of this disease. We therefore sought to evaluate the effects of these Chinese strategies for controlling the spread of COVID-19.

Methods

From the data of cumulative confirmed cases from provincial Health Commission websites of China, we performed model fitting and calculated the growth speed of cumulative confirmed patients. We further analyzed the time when this growth speed, the rate of the number of new cases, reached its maximum (Speed max ). Comparing different times to Speed max of different areas in China, we calculated the dates at which the growth speed began to decline in different areas. Also, The number of plateaus were analyzed.

Results

The quartic model showed the best fit. For almost all areas in mainland China, the speed of infections reached Speed max and began to decline within 14 days; exceptions were Hebei, Heilongjiang, Hainan, Guizhou, and Hubei. The number of plateaus was significantly correlated with the emigration index. However, the distance from other areas to Hubei and the number of plateaus had little influence on when a province or area arrived at Speed max . Once strict intervention strategies were implemented, diffusion and deterioration of COVID-19 were inhibited quickly and effectively over China.

Conclusion

Our study suggests that Chinese strategies are highly effective on controlling the diffusion and deterioration of the novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia. These strategies supply experience and guidelines for other countries to control the COVID-19 epidemic.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.10.20032755: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    The fitted functions and correlation coefficients were calculated by IBM SPSS Statistics 23.0 and Microsoft Office Excel 2010 as well.
    SPSS
    suggested: (SPSS, RRID:SCR_002865)
    Microsoft Office Excel
    suggested: (Microsoft Excel, RRID:SCR_016137)

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your data.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    The present study has certain limitations. In this study, we simplified the model analysis and performed model fitting with known data. Although the classical susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) and susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) models were not adopted, the quartic model showed a good fit to known data. This helps us to learn the trends of cumulative confirmed cases quickly and easily. However, our fitted models were all based on known data as it was more appropriate than forecasting future data trends. In addition, the changes in trends of basic reproduction number (R0) are not discussed in our study. The effects of Chinese strategies will be better understood if the time to Speedmax and changes in R0 are discussed together. Third, more data of different infectious diseases and studies are needed to verify the effectiveness and value of the index Speedmax. In conclusion, by analyzing the time to Speedmax, our study suggests that Chinese strategies are highly effective on controlling the diffusion and deterioration of the Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia. These strategies therefore provide experience and effective guidelines for other countries to control the diffusion of COVID-19.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.03.10.20032755v1 on medRxiv