Modelling the situation of COVID-19 and effects of different containment strategies in China with dynamic differential equations and parameters estimation

  1. Xiuli Liu
  2. Geoffrey Hewings
  3. Shouyang Wang
  4. Minghui Qin
  5. Xin Xiang
  6. Shan Zheng
  7. Xuefeng Li

Reviewed by

Read the full article See related articles

Listed in

Log in to save this article

Abstract

This paper proposed a quarantine-susceptible-exposed-infectious-resistant (QSEIR) model which considers the unprecedented strict quarantine measures in almost the whole of China to resist the epidemic. We estimated model parameters from published information with the statistical method and stochastic simulation, we found the parameters that achieved the best simulation test result. The next stage involved quantitative predictions of future epidemic developments based on different containment strategies with the QSEIR model, focused on the sensitivity of the outcomes to different parameter choices in mainland China. The main results are as follows. If the strict quarantine measures are being retained, the peak value of confirmed cases would be in the range of [52438, 64090] and the peak date would be expected in the range February 7 to February 19, 2020. During March18-30, 2020, the epidemic would be controlled. The end date would be in the period from August 20 to September 1, 2020. With 80% probability, our prediction on the peak date was 4 days ahead of the real date, the prediction error of the peak value is 0.43%, both estimates are much closer to the observed values compared with published studies. The sensitive analysis indicated that the quarantine measures (or with vaccination) are the most effective containment strategy to control the epidemic, followed by measures to increase the cured rate (like finding special medicine). The long-term simulation result and sensitive analysis in mainland China showed that the QSEIR model is stable and can be empirically validated. It is suggested that the QSEIR model can be applied to predict the development trend of the epidemic in other regions or countries in the world. In mainland China, the quarantine measures can’t be relaxed before the end of March 2020. China can fully resume production with appropriate anti-epidemic measures beginning in early April 2020. The results of this study also implied that other countries now facing the epidemic outbreaks should act more decisively and take in time quarantine measures though it may have negative short-term public and economic consequences.

Article activity feed

  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.09.20033498: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    Given data limitation, we estimated a constant value to each of them with 20% errors in simulation tests, which was the best result in 50000 times stochastic simulation within their statistical ranges. We applied these values in prediction and obtained better results than existed researches. With the improvement of data quality and more data, variable parameters can be estimated and the forecasting accuracy of the model could be enhanced. The vaccine research and development cycle are relatively long, from researching products to large-scale production and promotion, it takes about 6-18 months. It seems that the COVID-19 vaccination cannot be applied in large-scale quantities before the end of August, 20203.However, the COVID-19 is now spreading more seriously in other countries and regions in the world and there is also the possibility of its returning to China. As of March 7, 2020, 21, 110 confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been reported in 93 countries/territories/areas. Hence, it is imperative that the development of vaccines and specific drugs for COVID-19 should be promoted by many countries with the technical resources to conduct the necessary high-level research. Until they appear, it is the most important that appropriate quarantine measures are retained. In mainland China, the quarantine measures should not be relaxed before the end of March, 2020. China can fully resume production with appropriate anti-epidemic measures beginning in early April, 2020. The results of ...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.03.09.20033498v1 on medRxiv