Case fatality rate of novel coronavirus disease 2019 in China
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Abstract
Background
A pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) which have caused more than 80 thousand persons infected globally is still ongoing. This study aims to calculate its case fatality rate (CFR).
Methods
The method, termed as converged CFR calculation, was based on the formula of dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases T days before, where T was an average time period from case confirmation to death. It was found that supposing a T, if it was smaller (bigger) than the true T, calculated CFRs would gradually increase (decrease) to infinitely near the true T with time went on. According to the law, the true T value could be determined by trends of daily CFRs calculated with different assumed T values (left of true T is decreasing, right is increasing). Then the CFR could be calculated.
Results
CFR of COVID-19 in China except Hubei Province was 0.8% to 0.9%. So far, the CFR had accurately predicted the death numbers more than 3 weeks. CFR in Hubei of China was 5.4% by which the calculated death number corresponded with the reported number for 2 weeks.
Conclusion
The method could be used for CFR calculating while pandemics are still ongoing. Dynamic monitoring of the daily CFRs trends could help outbreak-controller to have a clear vision in the timeliness of the case confirmation.
Article activity feed
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.02.26.20028076: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:But a limitation should be taken into consideration that daily CFR would approach to true CFR only when deaths started to appear. When calculated T was too small, it might give outbreak-controllers information that if there remained a lot of infected persons unconfirmed. And if calculated T started to move backwards with time, it meant …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.02.26.20028076: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:But a limitation should be taken into consideration that daily CFR would approach to true CFR only when deaths started to appear. When calculated T was too small, it might give outbreak-controllers information that if there remained a lot of infected persons unconfirmed. And if calculated T started to move backwards with time, it meant confirmation of patients had become timely at then. In conclusion, by converged CFR calculation method, the true CFR of COVID-19 in China except Hubei Province was approximately from 0.8% to 0.9%. This calculated CFR could accurately predict the death numbers for more than 3 weeks. The CFR in Huibei was 5.4% at the present stage. This method in our study can be used for CFR calculation when a pandemic is still ongoing and monitoring the case confirmation situation.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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