Relations of parameters for describing the epidemic of COVID―19 by the Kermack―McKendrick model
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Abstract
In order to quantitatively characterize the epidemic of COVID-19, useful relations among parameters describing an epidemic in general are derived based on the Kermack–McKendrick model. The first relation is 1/ τ grow = 1/ τ trans − 1/ τ inf , where τ grow is the time constant of the exponential growth of an epidemic, τ trans is the time for a pathogen to be transmitted from one patient to uninfected person, and the infectious time τ inf is the time during which the pathogen keeps its power of transmission. The second relation p( ∞ ) ≈ 1 − exp( − ( R 0 − 1)/0 . 60) is the relation between p( ∞), the final size of the disaster defined by the ratio of the total infected people to the population of the society, and the basic reproduction number, R 0 , which is the number of persons infected by the transmission of the pathogen from one infected person during the infectious time. The third relation 1/ τ end = 1/ τ inf − (1 − p( ∞ ))/ τ trans gives the decay time constant τ end at the ending stage of the epidemic. Derived relations are applied to influenza in Japan in 2019 for characterizing the epidemic.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.02.26.20027797: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.02.26.20027797: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: Please consider improving the rainbow (“jet”) colormap(s) used on page 2. At least one figure is not accessible to readers with colorblindness and/or is not true to the data, i.e. not perceptually uniform.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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