Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the Diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020
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Abstract
An outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January-February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize how the transmission potential varied over the course of the outbreak. Our estimate of the mean reproduction number in the confined setting reached values as high as ∼11, which is higher than mean estimates reported from community-level transmission dynamics in China and Singapore (approximate range: 1.1-7). Our findings suggest that R t decreased substantially compared to values during the early phase after the Japanese government implemented an enhanced quarantine control. Most recent estimates of R t reached values largely below the epidemic threshold, indicating that a secondary outbreak of the novel coronavirus was unlikely to occur aboard the Diamond Princess Ship.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.02.24.20027649: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Several limitations should be listed. First, a total of 103 laboratory-confirmed symptomatic cases with unknown onset dates were not incorporated in our analysis. Although the high proportion of unavailable data (34% (103/300)) …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.02.24.20027649: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Several limitations should be listed. First, a total of 103 laboratory-confirmed symptomatic cases with unknown onset dates were not incorporated in our analysis. Although the high proportion of unavailable data (34% (103/300)) likely influenced a downward bias in estimates of transmission potential, our estimates still point to the high transmission potential of COVID-19 inside confined settings. Second, it is possible that reporting delays could have influenced our latest estimates of the effective reproduction number. In fact, the US government recently sent a chartered flight to transport the American passengers on board the Diamond Princess Ship, and after the disembarkation process, a total of 14 American passengers tested positive for the disease [18] on February 16, 2020. This event also contributes to a downward bias in R although the number of cases does not exceed the peak of the outbreak, further supporting the potent transmissibility of COVID-19 in confined settings. Our most recent estimate of the effective reproduction number of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic on board the Diamond Princess Ship was largely below the epidemic threshold of 1.0, which suggested a very low probability of observing secondary outbreaks of the disease in the Diamond Princess Ship.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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