A Novel Method for the Estimation of a Dynamic Effective Reproduction Number (Dynamic-R) in the CoViD-19 Outbreak

  1. Yi Chen Chong

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Abstract

The CoViD-19 outbreak has escalated to a pandemic in the last few weeks, with no signs of stopping. Pharmaceutical solutions based upon virologic studies, at this point, remain inconclusive. In contrast, this paper looks towards epidemiological models during this phase of viral growth, in particular, by providing a responsive, timely model of the R value based on the previous few days’ results.

Such an R value, although bearing less statistical precision due to limited sampling, could allow R to become a more effective, responsive standalone measure of infectious transmission. It demonstrates that the R value can be used as a dynamic, time-dependent indicator without the use of curve-fitting, and also estimates the most recent R-value of the CoViD-19 outbreak to be about 4.29, based on the data from the previous 3 days.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.02.22.20023267: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.02.22.20023267v2 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.02.22.20023267v1 on medRxiv