Epidemiological Development of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in China and Its Forecast

  1. Shanshan Wu
  2. Panpan Sun
  3. Ruiling Li
  4. Liang Zhao
  5. Yanli Wang
  6. Lifang Jiang
  7. Haili Wang
  8. Jinbo Deng

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Abstract

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The novel coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2) infected coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was broken out in Wuhan and Hubei province for more than a month. It severely threats people’s health of thousands in Chin and even other countries. In order to prevent its wide spread, it is necessary to understand the development of the epidemic with precise mathematical language.

METHODS

The various data of novel coronavirus pneumonia were collected from the official websites of the National Health Committee of the People’s Republic of China. According to epidemic and administrative division, three groups were divided to analyze the data, Hubei Province (including Wuhan), nationwide without Hubei and Henan Province. With classic SIR models, the fitting epidemiological curves of incidence have made, and basic reproduction number (R 0 ) was also calculated as well. Therefore the disease’s infection intensity, peak time and the epidemiological end time can be deduced.

RESULTS

(1) Wuhan was the origin place of the epidemic, then it spread to Hubei province quickly. The patients in Hubei had increased rapidly with exponential rise. According to data in Hubei province, the fitting parabolas were made, and some with 51,673 cases. R 0 curve shows with S-curve, at early breakout, R 0 was as high as 6.27, then it decrease gradually. It is expected to approach to zero in early May; (2) In the group of nationwide without Hubei, the patient cases were much lower than Hubei, but its epidemiological fitting curve also shows a parabola as Hubei. The peak will arrive around February 10 with 9,145 cases. At beginning, R 0 was as high as 2.44, then it decreases gradually and approach to zero in the end of March. (3) In Henan Province, the incidence stays very low, the parabolic fitting curve is similar to the nationwide without Hubei. The epidemic is expected to reach the peak on around February 12 and end in early April.

CONCLUSION

The epidemic development in all three groups shows parabolic curves. Their incidences are expected to reach their peaks on February 18 in Hubei, on February 10 in other areas of China. The epidemic will end in early May in Hubei, and in early April in other areas of China. Our study may provide useful knowledge for the government to make prevention and treatment policies.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.02.21.20026229: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    In the meantime, using MATLAB software and SIR mathematical model, the parabolic epidemiological curves were simulated according to data.
    MATLAB
    suggested: (MATLAB, RRID:SCR_001622)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
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    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.02.21.20026229 on medRxiv