The reproductive number R 0 of COVID-19 based on estimate of a statistical time delay dynamical system

  1. Nian Shao
  2. Jin Cheng
  3. Wenbin Chen

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Abstract

In this paper, we estimate the reproductive number R 0 of COVID-19 based on Wallinga and Lipsitch framework [11] and a novel statistical time delay dynamic system. We use the observed data reported in CCDC’s paper to estimate distribution of the generation interval of the infection and apply the simulation results from the time delay dynamic system as well as released data from CCDC to fit the growth rate. The conclusion is: Based our Fudan-CCDC model, the growth rate r of COVID-19 is almost in [0.30, 0.32] which is larger than the growth rate 0.1 estimated by CCDC [9], and the reproductive number R 0 of COVID-19 is estimated by 3.25 ≤ R 0 ≤ 3.4 if we simply use R = 1 + r ∗ T c with T c = 7.5, which is bigger than that of SARS. Some evolutions and predictions are listed.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.02.17.20023747: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.02.17.20023747v1 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.02.17.20023747v2 on medRxiv