The lockdown of Hubei Province causing different transmission dynamics of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan and Beijing
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Abstract
Background
After the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) starting in late 2019, a number of researchers have reported the predicted the virus transmission dynamics. However, under the strict control policy the novel coronavirus does not spread naturally outside Hubei Province, and none of the prediction closes to the real situation.
Methods and findings
We used the traditional SEIR model, fully estimated the effect of control measures, to predict the virus transmission in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei Province, and Beijing. We forecast that the outbreak of 2019-nCoV would reach its peak around March 6±10 in Wuhan and March 20±16 in Beijing, respectively. The infectious population in Beijing would be much less (only 0.3%) than those in Wuhan at the peak of this transmission wave. The number of confirmed cases in cities inside Hubei Province grow exponentially, whereas those in cities outside the province increase linearly.
Conclusions
The unprecedented province lockdown substantially suspends the national and global outbreak of 2019-nCoV.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.02.09.20021477: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: Please consider improving the rainbow (“jet”) colormap(s) used on page 6. At …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.02.09.20021477: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: Please consider improving the rainbow (“jet”) colormap(s) used on page 6. At least one figure is not accessible to readers with colorblindness and/or is not true to the data, i.e. not perceptually uniform.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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