Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in Malaysia Prior to the Movement Control Order

  1. J Labadin
  2. B.H Hong

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Abstract

This paper focuses on the formulation of a deterministic COVID-19 transmission model by considering the exposed and recovered populations with immunity. The scenario of the simulation is depicted based on the patient zero in Malaysia. The transmission model is found to be able to predict the next confirmed case given a single case is introduced in a fully susceptible population. The mathematical model is developed based on the SEIR model which has susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered populations. The system of equations which were obtained were solved numerically and the simulation results were analyzed. The analysis includes the impact of the disease if no control is taken.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.02.07.20021188: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.02.07.20021188v2 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.02.07.20021188v1 on medRxiv