Non-pharmaceutical intervention levels to reduce the COVID-19 attack ratio among children
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Abstract
The attack ratio in a subpopulation is defined as the total number of infections over the total number of individuals in this subpopulation. Using a methodology based on an age-stratified transmission dynamics model, we estimated the attack ratio of COVID-19 among children (individuals 0–11 years) when a large proportion of individuals eligible for vaccination (age 12 and above) are vaccinated to contain the epidemic among this subpopulation, or the effective herd immunity (with additional physical distancing measures). We describe the relationship between the attack ratio among children, the time to remove infected individuals from the transmission chain and the children-to-children daily contact rate while considering the increased transmissibility of virus variants (using the Delta variant as an example). We illustrate the generality and applicability of the methodology established by performing an analysis of the attack ratio of COVID-19 among children in the population of Canada and in its province of Ontario. The clinical attack ratio, defined as the number of symptomatic infections over the total population, can be informed from the attack ratio and both can be reduced substantially via a combination of reduced social mixing and rapid testing and isolation of the children.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.09.25.21263542: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:There are several limitations to the analysis presented within. We here have assumed that individuals under the age of 12 are half as susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2 as those above 12 years. Future studies may explore sensitivity of the study results (e.g., the estimated attack ratio and its dependence on time to isolation and …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.09.25.21263542: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:There are several limitations to the analysis presented within. We here have assumed that individuals under the age of 12 are half as susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2 as those above 12 years. Future studies may explore sensitivity of the study results (e.g., the estimated attack ratio and its dependence on time to isolation and activity levels) in terms of the relative susceptibility between the two age classes. We here have assumed Delta has completely replaced the previously circulating strains, hence may slightly overestimate the transmission probability per contact as there are still a (relatively small) number of cases detected in Ontario associated with strains such as Alpha. We also assumed homogeneity among the two age classes which span large age groups: those individuals under 12 years and those individuals 12 years and above. The potential differences or heterogeneity in activity levels, susceptibility to infection by SARS-CoV-2 and vaccination coverage rates may be accounted for in subsequent studies. In the present study, we have devised an algorithm to calculate the attack ratio among children under different scenarios of the activity level of the vaccine-eligible population and the children-to-children contact rate, and the speed in which infectious individuals are removed from the transmission chain. We remark that the algorithm is generic and therefore the attack ratio analysis presented within may be conducted for different geographic regions, which we...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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