Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador

Article activity feed

1. Version published to 10.1098/rsos.202266

   Jun 1, 2021
2. 

   ScreenIT

   Mar 1, 2021

   SciScore for 10.1101/2020.09.02.20186874: (What is this?)

   Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

   Table 1: Rigor

   NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

   Table 2: Resources

   Experimental Models: Organisms/Strains
   Sentences	Resources
   All model parameters except the contact rate from March 19th to May 4th, c1, were estimated independently of the NL COVID-19 case data (see Table 1).	c1 suggested: None

   ---

   Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your data.

   ---

   Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:

   Limitations: We were not able to estimate the rate that infected travellers enter NL, however other research modelling infection dynamics in the origin cities of air travellers to NL found that without travel restrictions a new COVID-19 case would …

   SciScore for 10.1101/2020.09.02.20186874: (What is this?)

   Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

   Table 1: Rigor

   NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

   Table 2: Resources

   Experimental Models: Organisms/Strains
   Sentences	Resources
   All model parameters except the contact rate from March 19th to May 4th, c1, were estimated independently of the NL COVID-19 case data (see Table 1).	c1 suggested: None

   ---

   Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your data.

   ---

   Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:

   Limitations: We were not able to estimate the rate that infected travellers enter NL, however other research modelling infection dynamics in the origin cities of air travellers to NL found that without travel restrictions a new COVID-19 case would enter NL every other day (Linka et al. 2020). Similarly, we were not able to estimate the percentage of travellers to NL that comply with self-isolation directives. Smith et al. (2020) found that 75% of survey participants reporting COVID-19 symptoms (high temperature and/or cough) also report having left their house in the last 24 hours, violating the lockdown measures in place in the UK at the time, and so non-compliance rates may be quite high. Our analysis does not consider hospitalizations or deaths, however, we note that as of May 4th, 2020, NL had experienced 259 clinical cases and 3 deaths. With the contact rate at 80% of its pre-pandemic level and no travel restrictions, we estimate that it would take, on average, 10.2 weeks for a further 259 clinical cases to occur, and although there is evidence that case fatality rates have changed over time (Ledford 2020), it is reasonable to expect a further 3 deaths under these conditions. In contrast, with the travel restrictions in place, it would take more than 6 months (28.1 weeks) for this same number of cases and deaths to accumulate. Thus, with the first COVID-19 vaccines available to the public a year after the beginning of the pandemic, the value of enacting travel restrictio...

   ---

   Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

   ---

   Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

   ---

   Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

   ---

   Results from rtransparent:

   • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
   • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
   • No protocol registration statement was detected.

   ---

   Read the original source
3. 

   Version published to 10.1101/2020.09.02.20186874 on medRxiv

   Sep 3, 2020