Possible fates of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Mexican context

  1. I. Santamaría-Holek
  2. V. Castaño

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Abstract

The determination of the adequate time for house confinement and when social distancing restrictions should end are now two of the main challenges that any country has to face in an ongoing battle against SARS-CoV-2. The possibility of a new outbreak of the pandemic and how to avoid it is, nowadays, one of the primary objectives of epidemiological research. In this work, we present an innovative compartmental model that explicitly introduces the number of active cases, and employ it as a conceptual tool to explore the possible fates of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Mexican context. We incorporated the impact of starting, inattention and end of restrictive social policies on the pandemic’s time evolution via time-dependent corrections to the infection rates. The magnitude and impact on the epidemic due to post-social restrictive policies are also studied. The scenarios generated by the model could help authorities determine an adequate time and population load that may be allowed to reassume normal activities.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.15.20154526: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your data.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1098/rsos.200886
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.07.15.20154526 on medRxiv