Estimating the Cumulative Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection and the Infection Fatality Ratio in Light of Waning Antibodies

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1. Version published to 10.1097/ede.0000000000001361

   Apr 2, 2021
2. 

   ScreenIT

   Nov 17, 2020

   SciScore for 10.1101/2020.11.13.20231266: (What is this?)

   Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

   Table 1: Rigor

   NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

   Table 2: Resources

   Antibodies
   Sentences	Resources
   11 Samples were tested by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein that detects the total immunoglobulin response (IgA, IgM, and IgG) with sensitivity 96% (95% confidence interval (CI): 98.3-99.9%) and specificity 99.3% (95% CI: 98.3-99.9%).6 Publicly available seroprevalence data adjusted for age and sex distributions were downloaded on October 8, 2020.12 We focused our analysis on New York City and Connecticut because the single, short wave of infection in the spring allowed us to evaluate how the antibodies acquired over a short period subsequently waned …

   SciScore for 10.1101/2020.11.13.20231266: (What is this?)

   Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

   Table 1: Rigor

   NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

   Table 2: Resources

   Antibodies
   Sentences	Resources
   11 Samples were tested by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein that detects the total immunoglobulin response (IgA, IgM, and IgG) with sensitivity 96% (95% confidence interval (CI): 98.3-99.9%) and specificity 99.3% (95% CI: 98.3-99.9%).6 Publicly available seroprevalence data adjusted for age and sex distributions were downloaded on October 8, 2020.12 We focused our analysis on New York City and Connecticut because the single, short wave of infection in the spring allowed us to evaluate how the antibodies acquired over a short period subsequently waned during a time when minimal new infections were occurring in these locations (Figure S1).	total immunoglobulin response (IgA, IgM, and IgG suggested: None

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   Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

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   Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:

   These differences are likely due to limitations or heterogeneity of the studies reported to date, including short follow-up times, small sample sizes, and different serology testing methods and analytic sensitivities.27 Most of the longitudinal studies published to date have followed participants for 14-150 days after symptom onset or baseline visits, which is not long enough to understand the complete timeline of seroreversion for all participants, particularly for IgG.7,8,19,20,24,25 The variation in clinical and demographic characteristics and severity of infection of participants in each study has also likely influenced these different findings.16,17,20,24,28 Infected individuals with mild or no symptoms who may exhibit lower titer and shorter time to seroreversion are often not included in these longitudinal studies. Therefore, assessing the timeline using population-level data, such as cross-sectional serology data and mortality data, is a viable alternative approach. Using our framework, infected individuals were estimated to remain seropositive for about 3-4 months on average. The average duration estimated by the New York City data and Connecticut data were mostly in agreement, with overlapping credible intervals. Differences in these average durations could be attributable to differences in demographic and clinical characteristics of infected individuals and differences in the testing and reporting practices. It is also important to note that the timeline of serocon...

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   Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

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   Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

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   Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

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   Results from rtransparent:

   • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
   • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
   • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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3. 

   Version published to 10.1101/2020.11.13.20231266 on medRxiv

   Nov 16, 2020