Years of life lost associated with COVID-19 deaths in the USA during the first year of the pandemic

  1. Troy Quast
  2. Ross Andel
  3. Sean Gregory
  4. Eric A Storch

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Abstract

Background

Years of Life Lost (YLLs) measure the shortfall in life expectancy due to a medical condition and have been used in multiple contexts. Previously it was estimated that there were 1.2 million YLLs associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths in the USA through 11 July 2020. The aim of this study is to update YLL estimates for the first full year of the pandemic.

Methods

We employed data regarding COVID-19 deaths in the USA through 31 January 2021 by jurisdiction, gender and age group. We used actuarial life expectancy tables by gender and age to estimate YLLs.

Results

We estimated roughly 3.9 million YLLs due to COVID-19 deaths, which correspond to roughly 9.2 YLLs per death. We observed a large range across states in YLLs per 10 000 capita, with New York City at 298 and Vermont at 12. Nationally, the YLLs per 10 000 capita were greater for males than females (136.3 versus 102.3), but there was significant variation in the differences across states.

Conclusions

Our estimates provide further insight into the mortality effects of COVID-19. The observed differences across states and genders demonstrate the need for disaggregated analyses of the pandemic’s effects.

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  1. Version published to 10.1093/pubmed/fdab123
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.03.02.21252715: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variableOut of 192,545 female deaths, 377 did not include information regarding age.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    Data: The data and methods employed follow those used in Quast, et al (2020).
    Quast
    suggested: (QUAST, RRID:SCR_001228)

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    Limitations: This study shares several limitations with our previous analyis.15 We relied on national life expectancy estimates as jurisdiction-level data were not available. Further, our life expectancy estimates are conditional upon an individual reaching the specified age. We had to employ a rough approximation for the pre-existing reduced expected life expectancy of those who died from COVID-19. While our use of a 25% reduction is conservative, especially in light of earlier estimates,14 a more precise estimate based on U.S. data would provide greater clarity. Our analysis does not attempt to adjust for quality of life as has been done elsewhere.11 The COVID-19 deaths data were provisional and thus incomplete. Estimates based on complete data would result in higher aggregate values, but given our large sample period the differences would likely be relatively minor. There are also concerns as to the accuracy of determinations of deaths caused by COVID-19.20 Any undercounting or overcounting of COVID-19 deaths would directly affect our YLLs estimates.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2021.03.02.21252715 on medRxiv