Universality in COVID-19 spread in view of the Gompertz function
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Abstract
We demonstrate that universal scaling behavior is observed in the current coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) spread, the COVID-19 pandemic, in various countries. We analyze the numbers of infected people who tested positive (cases) in 11 selected countries (Japan, USA, Russia, Brazil, China, Italy, Indonesia, Spain, South Korea, UK, and Sweden). By using a double exponential function called the Gompertz function, $f_\mathrm{G}(x)=\exp(-e^{-x})$, the number of cases is well described as $N(t)=N_0 f_\mathrm{G}(\gamma(t-t_0))$, where $N_0$, $\gamma$, and $t_0$ are the final number of cases, the damping rate of the infection probability, and the peak time of the daily number of new cases, $dN(t)/dt$, respectively. The scaled data of cases in most of the analyzed countries are found to collapse onto a common scaling function $f_\mathrm{G}(x)$ with $x=\gamma(t-t_0)$ being the scaling variable in the range of $f_\mathrm{G}(x)\pm 0.05$. The recently proposed indicator, the so-called $K$ value, the increasing rate of cases in one week, is also found to show universal behavior. The mechanism for the Gompertz function to appear is discussed from the time dependence of the produced pion numbers in nucleus–nucleus collisions, which is also found to be described by the Gompertz function.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.18.20135210: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.18.20135210: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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