Diagnostic Utility of a Ferritin-to-Procalcitonin Ratio to Differentiate Patients With COVID-19 From Those With Bacterial Pneumonia: A Multicenter Study

This article has been Reviewed by the following groups

Read the full article See related articles

Abstract

Background

There is an urgent need for accurate, rapid, inexpensive biomarkers that can differentiate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from bacterial pneumonia. We assess the role of the ferritin-to-procalcitonin (F/P) ratio to classify pneumonia cases into those due to COVID-19 vs those due to bacterial pathogens.

Methods

This multicenter case–control study compared patients with COVID-19 with those with bacterial pneumonia, admitted between March 1 and May 31, 2020. Patients with COVID-19 and bacterial pneumonia co-infection were excluded. The F/P in patients with COVID-19 vs with bacterial pneumonia were compared. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis determined the sensitivity and specificity of various cutoff F/P values for COVID-19 vs bacterial pneumonia.

Results

A total of 242 COVID-19 pneumonia cases and 34 bacterial pneumonia controls were included. Patients with COVID-19 pneumonia had a lower mean age (57.1 vs 64.4 years; P = .02) and a higher body mass index (30.74 vs 27.15 kg/m2; P = .02) compared with patients with bacterial pneumonia. Cases and controls had a similar proportion of women (47% vs 53%; P = .5), and COVID-19 patients had a higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus (32.6% vs 12%; P = .01). The median F/P was significantly higher in patients with COVID-19 (4037.5) compared with the F/P in bacterial pneumonia (802; P < .001). An F/P ≥877, used to diagnose COVID-19, resulted in a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 56%, with a positive predictive value of 93.2% and a likelihood ratio of 1.92. In multivariable analyses, an F/P ≥877 was associated with greater odds of identifying a COVID-19 case (odds ratio, 11.27; 95% CI, 4–31.2; P < .001).

Conclusions

An F/P ≥877 increases the likelihood of COVID-19 pneumonia compared with bacterial pneumonia.

Article activity feed

  1. SciScore for 10.1101/2020.10.20.20216309: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board StatementIRB: Ethics statement: This investigation was approved by the Colorado Multiple Institutional Review Board (COMIRB) at the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus (UCHealth), the Institutional Review Board (IRB) at Phoebe Putney Memorial Hospital in Albany, Georgia (USA), and the IRB at Yichang Central People’s Hospital of China Three Gorges University.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    At UCHealth and Phoebe Putney Memorial Hospital, data were retrospectively collected and stored in RedCap (electronic capture tools).
    RedCap
    suggested: (REDCap, RRID:SCR_003445)
    Statistical analysis: Statistical analyses were performed using STATA software, version 12.1 (StataCorp, College Station, Texas, USA).
    STATA
    suggested: (Stata, RRID:SCR_012763)
    StataCorp
    suggested: (Stata, RRID:SCR_012763)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).


    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    This study has several limitations. Proper use of F/P requires obtaining ferritin and PCT simultaneously as soon as possible after clinical presentation. However, our data included the first available levels of ferritin and PCT, and these levels may not have been obtained simultaneously or immediately after initial presentation. The diagnostic characteristics of F/P may improve with use of early and simultaneous acquisition of ferritin and PCT. Our total patient cohort from all 3 hospitals included only 34 patients with bacterial pneumonia, and more bacterial pneumonia cases need to be assessed to obtain a more accurate estimate of the utility of F/P. The retrospective study design makes it susceptible to several biases and the applicability of F/P to other patient populations is uncertain. Due to limitations of available data, we were unable to assess F/P association with important outcomes like mortality, ICU stay, and mechanical ventilation. Although we identified and adjusted for several confounders, there may be confounders unaccounted for in our analysis. Furthermore, we observed F/P overlap at low values for F/P (Fig 1), and our model predicts this is likely due to COVID-19 patients with mild disease. Low F/P in COVID-19 likely associates with smaller amounts of cytolysis and increased inflammation. It may therefore be difficult to separate mild COVID-19 cases with cases of bacterial pneumonia. If our model accurately reflects disease mechanism, serial calculation of F...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.


    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.


    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.


    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.