Refining Reproduction Number Estimates to Account for Unobserved Generations of Infection in Emerging Epidemics

  1. Andrea Brizzi
  2. Megan O’Driscoll
  3. Ilaria Dorigatti

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Abstract

Background

Estimating the transmissibility of infectious diseases is key to inform situational awareness and for response planning. Several methods tend to overestimate the basic (R0) and effective (Rt) reproduction numbers during the initial phases of an epidemic. In this work we explore the impact of incomplete observations and underreporting of the first generations of infections during the initial epidemic phase.

Methods

We propose a debiasing procedure that utilizes a linear exponential growth model to infer unobserved initial generations of infections and apply it to EpiEstim. We assess the performance of our adjustment using simulated data, considering different levels of transmissibility and reporting rates. We also apply the proposed correction to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) incidence data reported in Italy, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Results

In all simulation scenarios, our adjustment outperforms the original EpiEstim method. The proposed correction reduces the systematic bias, and the quantification of uncertainty is more precise, as better coverage of the true R0 values is achieved with tighter credible intervals. When applied to real-world data, the proposed adjustment produces basic reproduction number estimates that closely match the estimates obtained in other studies while making use of a minimal amount of data.

Conclusions

The proposed adjustment refines the reproduction number estimates obtained with the current EpiEstim implementation by producing improved, more precise estimates earlier than with the original method. This has relevant public health implications.

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  1. Version published to 10.1093/cid/ciac138
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    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.11.08.21266033: (What is this?)

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    No key resources detected.

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2021.11.08.21266033v1 on medRxiv