Dose-response Relation Deduced for Coronaviruses From Coronavirus Disease 2019, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome: Meta-analysis Results and its Application for Infection Risk Assessment of Aerosol Transmission
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Abstract
Background
A comprehensive understanding of the transmission routes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is of great importance to effectively control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the fundamental dose-response relation is missing for evaluation of the infection risk.
Methods
We developed a simple framework to integrate the a priori dose-response relation for SARS-CoV-2 based on mice experiments, the recent data on infection risk from a meta-analysis, and respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath to shed light on the dose-response relation for humans. The aerosol transmission infection risk was evaluated based on the dose-response model for a typical indoor environment.
Results
The developed dose-response relation is an exponential function with a constant k in the range of about 6.4 × 104 to 9.8 × 105 virus copies, which means that the infection risk caused by 1 virus copy in viral shedding is on the order of 10–6 to 10–5. The median infection risk via aerosol transmission with 1-hour exposure (10–6 to 10–4) was significantly lower than the risk caused by close contact (10–1) in a room with an area of 10 to 400 m2 with 1 infected individual in it and with a typical ventilation rate of 1 air change per hour.
Conclusions
The infection risk caused by aerosol transmission was significantly lower than the risk caused by close contact. It is still necessary to be cautious for the potential aerosol transmission risk in small rooms with prolonged exposure duration.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.26.20140624: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.26.20140624: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: Please consider improving the rainbow (“jet”) colormap(s) used on pages 6 and 7. At least one figure is not accessible to readers with colorblindness and/or is not true to the data, i.e. not perceptually uniform.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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