Differences in power law growth over time and indicators of COVID-19 pandemic progression worldwide
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Abstract
Error analysis and data visualization of positive COVID-19 cases in 27 countries have been performed up to August 8, 2020. This survey generally observes a progression from early exponential growth transitioning to an intermediate power-law growth phase, as recently suggested by Ziff and Ziff. The occurrence of logistic growth after the power-law phase with lockdowns or social distancing may be described as an effect of avoidance. A visualization of the power-law growth exponent over short time windows is qualitatively similar to the Bhatia visualization for pandemic progression. Visualizations like these can indicate the onset of second waves and may influence social policy.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.31.20048827: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources Another alternative is to use a software like Kaleidagraph, which does a nonlinear least squares analysis based on the Levenberg-Marquardt method. Kaleidagraphsuggested: (KaleidaGraph, RRID:SCR_014980)The weighted linear least squares method is considered sufficient for the time being and works very well automatically in Matlab scripts and produces the uncertainty in beta. Matlabsuggested: (MATLAB, RRID:SCR_001622)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from Lim…SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.31.20048827: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources Another alternative is to use a software like Kaleidagraph, which does a nonlinear least squares analysis based on the Levenberg-Marquardt method. Kaleidagraphsuggested: (KaleidaGraph, RRID:SCR_014980)The weighted linear least squares method is considered sufficient for the time being and works very well automatically in Matlab scripts and produces the uncertainty in beta. Matlabsuggested: (MATLAB, RRID:SCR_001622)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Sufficient effort in these cases meant extensive PCR testing, individual temperature checks at checkpoints, social distancing, limitations on gatherings, travel restrictions, quarantines, and wearing masks. This analysis provides useful tools to see the progression of disease worldwide and whether conditions are getting better or worse. This analysis identifies the most hard-hit countries such as the US, France, Belgium, Germany, UK, Italy, Israel, and Spain with beta crossing over 3. South Korea and Chinese provinces have lowered their beta from 1.5-2.5 to near zero. Making optimistic predictions depends on what we do now. Countries besides South Korea and China are all in the middle phase. Let’s hope we can look towards lowering the beta in the affected area. This study is a step towards trying to visualize the progression of the disease over time to see if social policies are working or not. More automated visualizations [4] like these could help understand how to track the control of COVID-19 or the lack of it.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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