How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology

  1. Naomi R. Waterlow
  2. Edwin van Leeuwen
  3. Nicholas G. Davies
  4. CMMID COVID-19 Working Group
  5. Stefan Flasche
  6. Rosalind M. Eggo

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Abstract

Cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) has been hypothesized to contribute to the relative sparing of children during the early phase of the pandemic. Testing this relies on understanding the prepandemic age distribution of recent HCoV infections, but little is known about their dynamics. Using England and Wales as a case study, we use a transmission model to estimate the duration of immunity to seasonal coronaviruses, and show how cross-protection could have affected the age distribution of susceptibility during the first wave, and could alter SARS-CoV-2 transmission patterns over the coming decade.

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  1. Version published to 10.1073/pnas.2108395118
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.05.27.21257032: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

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    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2021.05.27.21257032v1 on medRxiv