Mechanistic transmission modeling of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess cruise ship demonstrates the importance of aerosol transmission
This article has been Reviewed by the following groups
Listed in
- Evaluated articles (ScreenIT)
Abstract
We find that airborne transmission likely accounted for >50% of disease transmission on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which includes inhalation of aerosols during close contact as well as longer range. These findings underscore the importance of implementing public health measures that target the control of inhalation of aerosols in addition to ongoing measures targeting control of large-droplet and fomite transmission, not only aboard cruise ships but in other indoor environments as well. Guidance from health organizations should include a greater emphasis on controls for reducing spread by airborne transmission. Last, although our work is based on a cruise ship outbreak of COVID-19, the model approach can be applied to other indoor environments and other infectious diseases.
Article activity feed
-
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.13.20153049: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:There are several limitations to this modeling approach. For one, there is considerable uncertainty in our model inputs, as numerous estimates, assumptions, and implications were made because of a lack of available information, especially related to COVID-19 epidemic and mechanistic transmission characteristics, the interactions among …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.13.20153049: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:There are several limitations to this modeling approach. For one, there is considerable uncertainty in our model inputs, as numerous estimates, assumptions, and implications were made because of a lack of available information, especially related to COVID-19 epidemic and mechanistic transmission characteristics, the interactions among individuals onboard the ship, and the effectiveness of infection control strategies adopted during the quarantine period. Some of these assumptions could have a significant impact on the results. For example, while the average contribution of fomite transmission among acceptable model iterations was estimated to be lower than other the other two pathways, under some specific assumptions (e.g., ID50,URT/ID50,LRT = 1, see SI Section 4.4) or transmission periods (e.g., before passenger quarantine started), fomite transmission could have been the dominant transmission mode. Second, the model approach assumes constant and/or average values for numerous inputs in a given model iteration (e.g., every passenger was assumed to have the same probabilities of close-range contact with others and every infected individual was assumed to have the same emission rates of droplets in aerosols). By not considering variability in these parameters, we cannot directly account for “super-spreaders” and any underlying biological, physical, or behavioral differences in those individuals. Instead, the model framework produces average and uniform outcomes, which remains ...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
-
-
