Reductions in 2020 US life expectancy due to COVID-19 and the disproportionate impact on the Black and Latino populations
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Abstract
COVID-19 has generated a huge mortality toll in the United States, with a disproportionate number of deaths occurring among the Black and Latino populations. Measures of life expectancy quantify these disparities in an easily interpretable way. We project that COVID-19 will reduce US life expectancy in 2020 by 1.13 y. Estimated reductions for the Black and Latino populations are 3 to 4 times that for Whites. Consequently, COVID-19 is expected to reverse over 10 y of progress made in closing the Black−White gap in life expectancy and reduce the previous Latino mortality advantage by over 70%. Some reduction in life expectancy may persist beyond 2020 because of continued COVID-19 mortality and long-term health, social, and economic impacts of the pandemic.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.12.20148387: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:This analysis contains several limitations. These calculations rest on several assumptions (Materials and Methods), including that the age, racial, and ethnic distributions of future COVID-19 deaths will be equivalent to the …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.12.20148387: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:This analysis contains several limitations. These calculations rest on several assumptions (Materials and Methods), including that the age, racial, and ethnic distributions of future COVID-19 deaths will be equivalent to the distributions reported for current deaths. Data on deaths from COVID-19 are likely incomplete for several reasons, including attribution of COVID-19 deaths to other causes and incomplete and inaccurate recording of age, race, and ethnicity of these deaths. We also assume that individuals who do not die from COVID-19 experience the mortality conditions observed in 2017. This assumption does not allow us to include the impact of excess deaths from other causes that may have been related to the pandemic, such as deaths that could have been prevented had individuals not delayed or forgone medical care because of fear of contracting COVID-19, lost their health insurance, or faced other disruptions produced by the pandemic. Estimates of excess mortality suggest that deaths attributed to COVID-19 account for only two-thirds to three-fourths of all excess deaths in the US (46, 47). The impact of this underestimate of deaths in 2020 on life expectancy may be counteracted by harvesting – i.e., the notion that COVID-19 might disproportionately affect frail individuals with severe health conditions who would thus be likely to die imminently from other causes in the absence of COVID-19 (48) – but there is no evidence that harvesting has played a notable role in COVID-...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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