Local lockdowns outperform global lockdown on the far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve

  1. Vadim A. Karatayev
  2. Madhur Anand
  3. Chris T. Bauch

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Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, decision makers are grappling with how to reopen (and possibly reclose) their jurisdictions as the number of cases ebbs and flows. Establishing a criterion for each county/municipality to open and close based on their case count has appeal, given the wide disparity in COVID-19 rates in urban versus rural settings. Our simulation model is based on the geography, epidemiology, and travel patterns of Ontario, Canada. It shows that the county-by-county approach causes fewer days of closure and impacts fewer people than a strategy that opens or closes the entire province together. This is true even if individuals begin traveling to reopened counties with higher frequency. The county-by-county strategy is most effective when the criteria are coordinated.

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  1. Version published to 10.1073/pnas.2014385117
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.10.20097485: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

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    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.05.10.20097485 on medRxiv