Decisive conditions for strategic vaccination against SARS-CoV-2
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Abstract
While vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) are being administered, in many countries it may still take months until their supply can meet demand. The majority of available vaccines elicit strong immune responses when administered as prime-boost regimens. Since the immunological response to the first (“prime”) dose may provide already a substantial reduction in infectiousness and protection against severe disease, it may be more effective—under certain immunological and epidemiological conditions—to vaccinate as many people as possible with only one dose instead of administering a person a second (“booster”) dose. Such a vaccination campaign may help to more effectively slow down the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and reduce hospitalizations and fatalities. The conditions that make prime-first vaccination favorable over prime-boost campaigns, however, are not well understood. By combining epidemiological modeling, random-sampling techniques, and decision tree learning, we find that prime-first vaccination is robustly favored over prime-boost vaccination campaigns even for low single-dose efficacies. For epidemiological parameters that describe the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), recent data on new variants included, we show that the difference between prime-boost and single-shot waning rates is the only discriminative threshold, falling in the narrow range of 0.01–0.02 day−1 below which prime-first vaccination should be considered.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.03.05.21252962: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Experimental Models: Organisms/Strains Sentences Resources The evolution of the infected, recovered, and deceased compartments is described by: Only 10 of equations (3) and (6) are independent since we employ the normalization condition S + S* + S** + E + E* + E** + I + I* + I** + R + D = 1.
S + S* + S** + E + E* + E** + I + I* + I** + Rsuggested: NoneSoftware and Algorithms Sentences Resources The algorithm RepeatedStratifiedKFold (available in the Python library scikit-learn1) optimizes for split purity using Gini as loss function (split criterion). Pythonsuggested: (IPython, RRID:SCR_001658)Results from OddPub: Thank you for …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.03.05.21252962: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Experimental Models: Organisms/Strains Sentences Resources The evolution of the infected, recovered, and deceased compartments is described by: Only 10 of equations (3) and (6) are independent since we employ the normalization condition S + S* + S** + E + E* + E** + I + I* + I** + R + D = 1.
S + S* + S** + E + E* + E** + I + I* + I** + Rsuggested: NoneSoftware and Algorithms Sentences Resources The algorithm RepeatedStratifiedKFold (available in the Python library scikit-learn1) optimizes for split purity using Gini as loss function (split criterion). Pythonsuggested: (IPython, RRID:SCR_001658)Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Matrajt et al. [31] also argue that due to the complexity of the model and limitations from available data, a recommendation can only be given, once the precision in epidemiological parameters becomes sufficiently high. A similar assessment is reported in [11] for Avian influenza A (H5N1 & H7N9). These studies emphasize to prioritize data collection such as further field efficacy data [7]. Saad-Roy et al. [32] focus on the long-term effects of waning and evolutionary immune response in a highly-parameterized model. Their results underscore the importance of studying viral phylodynamics, from within host to global scales. Certain scenarios they analyze suggest that single-dose campaigns may be favorable for some time scales but not for others, depending on a combination of parameters, waning rates included. Based on our analyses, we provide a robust preference criterion based on only two highly-discriminative parameters, vaccination rate and waning rate difference. Preference for prime-first vaccination is not unexpected. For the initial inter-dose interval time, both vaccination strategies are identical since, regardless of the chosen strategy, booster jabs are not yet administered. In the subsequent time interval twice as many susceptible individuals can be immunized with a prime-first protocol compared to prime-boost vaccination. This means, about 50% of individuals who could have received a shot will actually remain unvaccinated. Let us refer to this unvaccinated group as ...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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