High coverage COVID-19 mRNA vaccination rapidly controls SARS-CoV-2 transmission in long-term care facilities
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Abstract
Background
Residents of Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) represent a major share of COVID-19 deaths worldwide. Measuring the vaccine effectiveness among the most vulnerable in these settings is essential to monitor and improve mitigation strategies.
Methods
We evaluate the early effect of the administration of BNT162b2-mRNA vaccine to individuals older than 64 years residing in LTCFs in Catalonia, Spain. We monitor all the SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths among LTCFs residents once more than 70% of them were fully vaccinated (February–March 2021). We develop a modeling framework based on the relationship between community and LTCFs transmission during the pre-vaccination period (July–December 2020). We compute the total reduction in SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths among residents of LTCFs over time, as well as the reduction in the detected transmission for all the LTCFs. We compare the true observations with the counterfactual predictions.
Results
We estimate that once more than 70% of the LTCFs population are fully vaccinated, 74% (58–81%, 90% CI) of COVID-19 deaths and 75% (36–86%, 90% CI) of all expected documented infections among LTCFs residents are prevented. Further, detectable transmission among LTCFs residents is reduced up to 90% (76–93%, 90% CI) relative to that expected given transmission in the community.
Conclusions
Our findings provide evidence that high-coverage vaccination is the most effective intervention to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission and death among LTCFs residents. Widespread vaccination could be a feasible avenue to control the COVID-19 pandemic conditional on key factors such as vaccine escape, roll out and coverage.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.04.08.21255108: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:In addition, we acknowledge that our investigation has limitations. We assume that the rigorous screening standards in LTCFs in Catalonia led to infection ascertainment close to 100% and also that the ascertainment of community infections does not change dramatically over time. While this may appear unrealistic, we suspect it is not far …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.04.08.21255108: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:In addition, we acknowledge that our investigation has limitations. We assume that the rigorous screening standards in LTCFs in Catalonia led to infection ascertainment close to 100% and also that the ascertainment of community infections does not change dramatically over time. While this may appear unrealistic, we suspect it is not far from the truth, as public health authorities in Catalonia substantially increased the infection screening efforts in LTCFs before the vaccination campaign [13]. Further, regression models were not designed for accurate infection (or deaths) forecasting and as such, they may not fully capture the epidemiological dynamics. However, our efforts were focused on proper inference of the expected epidemic trajectory in the absence of vaccination. This goal is achieved as our models appear to reasonably capture the overall dynamics during the pre-vaccination time periods, even at high spatial granularity (Supplementary Information Figure S1-S2). Finally, there could be unmeasured confounders, such as behavior or policy changes, not captured by our models, that may have changed the dynamics of transmission between the community and LTCFs over time ╌this may be the case in the health area Alt Pirineu i Aran (Supplementary Information Figure S1-S2). In most studied regions, however, we suspect this was not the case. In spite of these limitations, our analyses provide evidence that vaccination may be the most effective intervention in controlling SARS-CoV...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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