Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context

  1. Subhendu Paul
  2. Emmanuel Lorin

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Abstract

We propose a novel model based on a set of coupled delay differential equations with fourteen delays in order to accurately estimate the incubation period of COVID-19, employing publicly available data of confirmed corona cases. In this goal, we separate the total cases into fourteen groups for the corresponding fourteen incubation periods. The estimated mean incubation period we obtain is 6.74 days (95% Confidence Interval(CI): 6.35 to 7.13), and the 90th percentile is 11.64 days (95% CI: 11.22 to 12.17), corresponding to a good agreement with statistical supported studies. This model provides an almost zero-cost computational complexity to estimate the incubation period.

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  1. Version published to 10.1038/s41598-021-91834-8
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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.11.20.20235648: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    For a complete calculation, we run the matlab code twice.
    matlab
    suggested: (MATLAB, RRID:SCR_001622)

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    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
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    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.11.20.20235648v1 on medRxiv