Cold and dry winter conditions are associated with greater SARS-CoV-2 transmission at regional level in western countries during the first epidemic wave
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Abstract
Higher transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in cold and dry weather conditions has been hypothesized since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic but the level of epidemiological evidence remains low. During the first wave of the pandemic, Spain, Italy, France, Portugal, Canada and USA presented an early spread, a heavy COVID-19 burden, and low initial public health response until lockdowns. In a context when testing was limited, we calculated the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) in 63 regions from the growth in regional death counts. After adjusting for population density, early spread of the epidemic, and age structure, temperature and humidity were negatively associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility. A reduction of mean absolute humidity by 1 g/m 3 was associated with a 0.15-unit increase of R 0 . Below 10 °C, a temperature reduction of 1 °C was associated with a 0.16-unit increase of R 0 . Our results confirm a dependency of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility to weather conditions in the absence of control measures during the first wave. The transition from summer to winter, corresponding to drop in temperature associated with an overall decrease in absolute humidity, likely contributed to the intensification of the second wave in north-west hemisphere countries. Non-pharmaceutical interventions must be adjusted to account for increased transmissibility in winter conditions.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.01.26.21250475: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources Data: Date of lockdown definition: Lockdown date was defined using Google mobility data as the date when a decrease >25% in workplace localization was reported and sustained over 3 days in the region [28]. Googlesuggested: (Google, RRID:SCR_017097)Maps were produced using ArcGIS 10.7.1. ArcGISsuggested: (ArcGIS for Desktop Basic, RRID:SCR_011081)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the …SciScore for 10.1101/2021.01.26.21250475: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources Data: Date of lockdown definition: Lockdown date was defined using Google mobility data as the date when a decrease >25% in workplace localization was reported and sustained over 3 days in the region [28]. Googlesuggested: (Google, RRID:SCR_017097)Maps were produced using ArcGIS 10.7.1. ArcGISsuggested: (ArcGIS for Desktop Basic, RRID:SCR_011081)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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