Model-based projections for COVID-19 outbreak size and student-days lost to closure in Ontario childcare centres and primary schools
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Abstract
There is a pressing need for evidence-based scrutiny of plans to re-open childcare centres during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we developed an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within a childcare centre and households. Scenarios varied the student-to-educator ratio (15:2, 8:2, 7:3), family clustering (siblings together versus random assignment) and time spent in class. We also evaluated a primary school setting (with student-educator ratios 30:1, 15:1 and 8:1), including cohorts that alternate weekly. In the childcare centre setting, grouping siblings significantly reduced outbreak size and student-days lost. We identify an intensification cascade specific to classroom outbreaks of respiratory viruses with presymptomatic infection. In both childcare and primary school settings, each doubling of class size from 8 to 15 to 30 more than doubled the outbreak size and student-days lost (increases by factors of 2–5, depending on the scenario. Proposals for childcare and primary school reopening could be enhanced for safety by switching to smaller class sizes and grouping siblings.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.07.20170407: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources The age-specific transmission rates in the school rooms is given by the matrixPCi where is the number of contacts per day reported between age i and j estimated from data21.
matrixPCisuggested: NoneResults from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Finally, the present study has a number of limitations that should be considered. While it is becoming increasingly clear that …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.07.20170407: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources The age-specific transmission rates in the school rooms is given by the matrixPCi where is the number of contacts per day reported between age i and j estimated from data21.
matrixPCisuggested: NoneResults from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Finally, the present study has a number of limitations that should be considered. While it is becoming increasingly clear that COVID-19 risk varies as a function of social determinants of health (e.g., socioeconomic status, race, ethnicity, immigration status, neighborhood risk), along with opportunities for social distancing29, the present study did not take these considerations into account. Future simulation studies might consider how these social determinants intersect with childcare and school configurations. Additionally, this study was primarily concerned with SARS-CoV-2 infection and student days lost. That being said, there are many important outcomes to consider in relation to children’s developmental health in the pandemic. Longitudinal studies considering children’s learning and mental health outcomes in relation to new childcare and school configurations are strongly indicated30.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We found bar graphs of continuous data. We recommend replacing bar graphs with more informative graphics, as many different datasets can lead to the same bar graph. The actual data may suggest different conclusions from the summary statistics. For more information, please see Weissgerber et al (2015).
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.07.20170407: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
Finally, the present study has a number of limitations that should be considered. While it is becoming increasingly clear that COVID-19 risk varies as a function of social determinants of health (e.g., socioeconomic status, race, ethnicity, immigration status, neighborhood risk), along with opportunities for social distancing30 , the …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.07.20170407: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
Finally, the present study has a number of limitations that should be considered. While it is becoming increasingly clear that COVID-19 risk varies as a function of social determinants of health (e.g., socioeconomic status, race, ethnicity, immigration status, neighborhood risk), along with opportunities for social distancing30 , the present study did not take this considerations into account. Future simulation studies might consider how these social determinants intersect with childcare and school configurations. Additionally, this study was primarily concerned with COVID-19 infection and student days lost. That being said, there are many important outcomes to consider in relation to children’s developmental health in the pandemic. Additional longitudinal studies considering children’s learning and mental health outcomes in relation to new childcare and school configurations are indicated31 .
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
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