A recursive bifurcation model for early forecasting of COVID-19 virus spread in South Korea and Germany

  1. Julia Shen

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Abstract

Early forecasting of COVID-19 virus spread is crucial to decision making on lockdown or closure of cities, states or countries. In this paper we design a recursive bifurcation model for analyzing COVID-19 virus spread in different countries. The bifurcation facilitates recursive processing of infected population through linear least-squares fitting. In addition, a nonlinear least-squares fitting procedure is utilized to predict the future values of infected populations. Numerical results on the data from two countries (South Korea and Germany) indicate the effectiveness of our approach, compared to a logistic growth model and a Richards model in the context of early forecast. The limitation of our approach and future research are also mentioned at the end of this paper.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.09.20059329: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1038/s41598-020-77457-5
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.09.20059329v1 on medRxiv