Initial analysis of viral dynamics and circulating viral variants during the mRNA-1273 Phase 3 COVE trial

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Abstract

The mRNA-1273 vaccine for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) demonstrated 93.2% efficacy in reduction of symptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in the blinded portion of the Phase 3 Coronavirus Efficacy (COVE) trial. While mRNA-1273 demonstrated high efficacy in prevention of COVID-19, including severe disease, its effect on the viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections is not understood. Here, in exploratory analyses, we assessed the impact of mRNA-1273 vaccination in the ongoing COVE trial (number NCT04470427) on SARS-CoV-2 copy number and shedding, burden of disease and infection, and viral variants. Viral variants were sequenced in all COVID-19 and adjudicated COVID-19 cases ( n  = 832), from July 2020 in the blinded part A of the study to May 2021 of the open-label part B of the study, in which participants in the placebo arm started to receive the mRNA-1273 vaccine after US Food and Drug Administration emergency use authorization of mRNA-1273 in December 2020. mRNA-1273 vaccination significantly reduced SARS-CoV-2 viral copy number (95% confidence interval) by 100-fold on the day of diagnosis compared with placebo (4.1 (3.4–4.8) versus 6.2 (6.0–6.4) log 10 copies per ml). Median times to undetectable viral copies were 4 days for mRNA-1273 and 7 days for placebo. Vaccination also substantially reduced the burden of disease and infection scores. Vaccine efficacies (95% confidence interval) against SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in the United States during the trial assessed in this post hoc analysis were 82.4% (40.4–94.8%) for variants Epsilon and Gamma and 81.2% (36.1–94.5%) for Epsilon. The detection of other, non-SARS-CoV-2, respiratory viruses during the trial was similar between groups. While additional study is needed, these data show that in SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals, vaccination reduced both the viral copy number and duration of detectable viral RNA, which may be markers for the risk of virus transmission.

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  1. SciScore for 10.1101/2021.09.28.21264252: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    EthicsIRB: The central Institutional Review Board/Ethics Committee, Advarra, Inc., 6100 Merriweather Drive, Columbia, MD 21044 approved the protocol and consent forms.
    Consent: All participants provided written informed consent.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    RandomizationTrial Design: This is an analysis of the previously reported COVE study, a phase 3 randomized, observer-blinded, placebo-controlled trial that enrolled adults in medically-stable condition at 99 US sites (clintrials.gov NCT04470427).1,2 Eligible participants included adults 18 years or older with no known history of SARS-CoV-2 infection, whose circumstances put them at appreciable risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection and/or high risk of severe Covid-19.
    BlindingPart A was the observer blinded to-treatment phase which concluded when participants unblinded and consideration given those on placebo to receive mRNA-1273.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    The Agilent 2200 or 4200 TapeStation in conjunction with D5000 ScreenTapes, D5000 reagents and the TapeStation Analysis software was used to assess purified libraries for presence, average fragment size, and concentration of the fragment distributions generated.
    TapeStation Analysis
    suggested: None
    SARS-CoV-2 S gene NGS runs using MiSeq v2 chemistry reagents running paired-end 2 × 151 reads must exhibit the following criteria: Cluster densities approximating 600 - 1,200K/mm2; >80% of bases called exhibit Q-scores ≥30.
    MiSeq
    suggested: (A5-miseq, RRID:SCR_012148)
    The resulting amplicon is purified and normalized before undergoing NGS library preparation (Kapa).
    NGS
    suggested: (PM4NGS, RRID:SCR_019164)
    Whole Genome Sequencing Assay (WGS) from Eurofins Viracor (Kansas City, MO): Viral RNA from nasal swabs is extracted using the Kingfisher Flex platform and GSD NovaPrime® RNA extraction kit.
    WGS
    suggested: None
    The fragment size distribution of the final pooled library was confirmed using the Agilent TapeStation 4200 or ThermoFisher BioAnalyzer 2100 DNA fragment analyzer prior to preparation for sequencing.
    ThermoFisher BioAnalyzer
    suggested: None

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).


    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    There are several limitations to consider. First, it should be noted that the analyses presented here are based upon an initial evaluation of data that will continue to accrue over time and will be subject to future updates. Although the BOD and BOI results were statistically significant over the entire PP set, the results were driven by the overall high vaccine efficacy and a numerically dominant prevalence of mild-to-moderate disease, including asymptomatic infections for BOI. With increased follow-up times and inevitably acquired disease in participants, the proportions of BOD and BOI may change. A prespecified, proportional means model was used for the analysis, to allow direct comparison across different periods of follow-up, minimizing these effects. The sequence data also come with known caveats, some demonstrated through this work. For example, the fact that the vaccine has a marked effect on lowering SARS-CoV-2 viral loads hampered our efforts to generate an unbiased sequence data set. Even though sequencing efforts were performed in a blinded manner and the team was unaware of participant treatment assignments, the success rates in obtaining good quality sequences from samples of vaccine breakthrough cases was 50% or less, while it was over 80% for placebo-originated samples. Although this is a clear, unavoidable bias in the available sequence data, it does not affect the overall assessment of the biological effect of vaccination on viral load. While a highly-aggres...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: We found the following clinical trial numbers in your paper:

    IdentifierStatusTitle
    NCT04470427Active, not recruitingA Study to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety, and Immunogenicity of …


    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.


    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.


    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.


    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.