Agent-based modelling of reactive vaccination of workplaces and schools against COVID-19
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Abstract
With vaccination against COVID-19 stalled in some countries, increasing vaccine accessibility and distribution could help keep transmission under control. Here, we study the impact of reactive vaccination targeting schools and workplaces where cases are detected, with an agent-based model accounting for COVID-19 natural history, vaccine characteristics, demographics, behavioural changes and social distancing. In most scenarios, reactive vaccination leads to a higher reduction in cases compared with non-reactive strategies using the same number of doses. The reactive strategy could however be less effective than a moderate/high pace mass vaccination program if initial vaccination coverage is high or disease incidence is low, because few people would be vaccinated around each case. In case of flare-ups, reactive vaccination could better mitigate spread if it is implemented quickly, is supported by enhanced test-trace-isolate and triggers an increased vaccine uptake. These results provide key information to plan an adaptive vaccination rollout.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.07.26.21261133: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:The study is affected by several limitations. First, the synthetic population used in the study accounts for the repartition of contacts across workplaces, schools, households, etc., informed by contact surveys. However, numbers of contacts and risk of transmission could vary greatly according to the kind of occupation. The synthetic population accounts for this variability assuming that the average number of contacts from one workplace to …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.07.26.21261133: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:The study is affected by several limitations. First, the synthetic population used in the study accounts for the repartition of contacts across workplaces, schools, households, etc., informed by contact surveys. However, numbers of contacts and risk of transmission could vary greatly according to the kind of occupation. The synthetic population accounts for this variability assuming that the average number of contacts from one workplace to another is gamma distributed 12. Still, no data were available to inform the model in this respect. Second, we model vaccination uptake according to age only, when it is determined by several sociodemographic factors. Clusters of vaccine hesitant individuals may play an important role in the dynamics and facilitate the epidemic persistence in the population, as it is described for measles 53. As vaccination coverage increases, heterogeneities in attitude toward vaccination will likely have an increasing impact. Third, the baseline analysis is based on vaccine efficacy parameters for the wild type virus that is best documented. Vaccine protection may be reduced or require more time to establish with VOC infection. For example, vaccine protection was lower for the Delta variant than for the historical variant, especially in those who had received only one dose 54–56. Scenarios with slower rise of vaccine protection - parametrised from 25 - and 30% reduced efficacy against infection were tested in the sensitivity analysis. Simulation shows a m...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We found bar graphs of continuous data. We recommend replacing bar graphs with more informative graphics, as many different datasets can lead to the same bar graph. The actual data may suggest different conclusions from the summary statistics. For more information, please see Weissgerber et al (2015).
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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