The effect of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy and perspectives for living with the virus
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Abstract
COVID-19 vaccination is allowing a progressive release of restrictions worldwide. Using a mathematical model, we assess the impact of vaccination in Italy since December 27, 2020 and evaluate prospects for societal reopening after emergence of the Delta variant. We estimate that by June 30, 2021, COVID-19 vaccination allowed the resumption of about half of pre-pandemic social contacts. In absence of vaccination, the same number of cases is obtained by resuming only about one third of pre-pandemic contacts, with about 12,100 (95% CI: 6,600-21,000) extra deaths (+27%; 95% CI: 15–47%). Vaccination offset the effect of the Delta variant in summer 2021. The future epidemic trend is surrounded by substantial uncertainty. Should a pediatric vaccine (for ages 5 and older) be licensed and a coverage >90% be achieved in all age classes, a return to pre-pandemic society could be envisioned. Increasing vaccination coverage will allow further reopening even in absence of a pediatric vaccine.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.03.19.21253893: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:There are a number of limitations that must be kept in mind when interpreting our results. First, we did not explicitly model which PDRs are relaxed as vaccination progresses; instead, we assumed a generic relaxation of …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.03.19.21253893: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:There are a number of limitations that must be kept in mind when interpreting our results. First, we did not explicitly model which PDRs are relaxed as vaccination progresses; instead, we assumed a generic relaxation of measures that impacts all ages proportionally. The age-specific effect of relaxing existing PDRs is extremely hard to quantify, and their prioritization is a peculiarly political decision, depending on the governments’ strategic interests. Second, we assume mitigation measures to maintain an approximately constant incidence; although this dynamic is clearly idealized, we consider this an acceptable approximation of the fluctuating incidence observed in most countries. We anticipate that possible resurgences due to imperfect mitigation will contribute to speed up the population immunity and therefore the relaxation of PDRs, however at the cost of more lives lost. Third, we did not explicitly model the effect of other possible features of emerging variants, such as reductions in vaccine effectiveness [19-20] or the ability to escape natural immunity [13, 21-22], or a combination of them. We estimate that a 15% lower efficacy of vaccines under the transmissibility of historical lineages would imply an increase in deaths of up to 50%, without affecting the time to a complete relaxation of PDRs. The possibility of escape from natural immunity is not expected to be a major driver of our conclusions, considering the limited share of population immunity due to natural...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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