Correlation of SARS-CoV-2-breakthrough infections to time-from-vaccine

  1. Barak Mizrahi
  2. Roni Lotan
  3. Nir Kalkstein
  4. Asaf Peretz
  5. Galit Perez
  6. Amir Ben-Tov
  7. Gabriel Chodick
  8. Sivan Gazit
  9. Tal Patalon

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Abstract

The short-term effectiveness of a two-dose regimen of the BioNTech/Pfizer mRNA BNT162b2 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine was widely demonstrated. However, long term effectiveness is still unknown. Leveraging the centralized computerized database of Maccabi Healthcare Services (MHS), we assessed the correlation between time-from-vaccine and incidence of breakthrough infection between June 1 and July 27, the date of analysis. After controlling for potential confounders as age and comorbidities, we found a significant 1.51 fold (95% CI, 1.38–1.66) increased risk for infection for early vaccinees compared to those vaccinated later that was similar across all ages groups. The increased risk reached 2.26- fold (95% CI, 1.80–3.01) when comparing those who were vaccinated in January to those vaccinated in April. This preliminary finding of vaccine waning as a factor of time from vaccince should prompt further investigations into long-term protection against different strains.

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  1. Version published to 10.1038/s41467-021-26672-3
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.07.29.21261317: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a protocol registration statement.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2021.07.29.21261317 on medRxiv