Role of meteorological factors in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States
This article has been Reviewed by the following groups
Listed in
- Evaluated articles (ScreenIT)
Abstract
Improved understanding of the effects of meteorological conditions on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent for COVID-19 disease, is needed. Here, we estimate the relationship between air temperature, specific humidity, and ultraviolet radiation and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 2669 U.S. counties with abundant reported cases from March 15 to December 31, 2020. Specifically, we quantify the associations of daily mean temperature, specific humidity, and ultraviolet radiation with daily estimates of the SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number ( R t ) and calculate the fraction of R t attributable to these meteorological conditions. Lower air temperature (within the 20–40 °C range), lower specific humidity, and lower ultraviolet radiation were significantly associated with increased R t . The fraction of R t attributable to temperature, specific humidity, and ultraviolet radiation were 3.73% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 3.66–3.76%), 9.35% (95% eCI: 9.27–9.39%), and 4.44% (95% eCI: 4.38–4.47%), respectively. In total, 17.5% of R t was attributable to meteorological factors. The fractions attributable to meteorological factors generally were higher in northern counties than in southern counties. Our findings indicate that cold and dry weather and low levels of ultraviolet radiation are moderately associated with increased SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility, with humidity playing the largest role.
Article activity feed
-
-
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.11.13.20231472: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Several limitations should be noted. First, this is an ecological rather than an individual-level study, thus making the study susceptible to the ecological fallacy. Second, due to the high correlation between temperature and SH, we were unable to explore whether the effects of temperature and humidity are independent. Third, our study period was restricted to March-August; if we had been able to include an entire year, including the …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.11.13.20231472: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Several limitations should be noted. First, this is an ecological rather than an individual-level study, thus making the study susceptible to the ecological fallacy. Second, due to the high correlation between temperature and SH, we were unable to explore whether the effects of temperature and humidity are independent. Third, our study period was restricted to March-August; if we had been able to include an entire year, including the colder months of November-February, our AF estimates for the entire study period would likely have been larger. Conclusion: Our findings indicate that cold and dry weather are moderately associated with increased SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility in the U.S., with absolute humidity (i.e., SH) playing a greater role than temperature. More extensive public health interventions are needed to mitigate the increased transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in winter months.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a protocol registration statement.
-
