Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States
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Abstract
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the only widely available tool for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We estimated weekly values of the effective basic reproductive number (R eff ) using a mechanistic metapopulation model and associated these with county-level characteristics and NPIs in the United States (US). Interventions that included school and leisure activities closure and nursing home visiting bans were all associated with a median R eff below 1 when combined with either stay at home orders (median R eff 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58–1.39) or face masks (median R eff 0.97, 95% CI 0.58–1.39). While direct causal effects of interventions remain unclear, our results suggest that relaxation of some NPIs will need to be counterbalanced by continuation and/or implementation of others.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.10.29.20221036: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources We chose to focus on workplace presentation among candidate datasets available through Google as this was the only dataset that had less than 50% of county-weeks missing. Googlesuggested: (Google, RRID:SCR_017097)Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Despite these limitations our analysis provides critical insight into how individual interventions, or at least commonly used suites of interventions, may affect the spread of SARS-CoV2. These estimates are …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.10.29.20221036: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources We chose to focus on workplace presentation among candidate datasets available through Google as this was the only dataset that had less than 50% of county-weeks missing. Googlesuggested: (Google, RRID:SCR_017097)Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Despite these limitations our analysis provides critical insight into how individual interventions, or at least commonly used suites of interventions, may affect the spread of SARS-CoV2. These estimates are critical as governments attempt to figure out how to respond to resurgent cases and look for responses that successfully control spread while allowing as much of normal economic and social life to continue as possible. The fact that multiple NPIs were needed to reduce Reff below one, suggests that relaxation of some NPIs might need to be counterbalanced by continuation and/or implementation of others. Our point estimates of the relative contribution of each intervention provide some guidance in making these difficult decisions.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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