Intraregional propagation of Covid-19 cases in Pará, Brazil: assessment of isolation regime to lockdown

  1. Félix Lélis da Silva
  2. Javier Dias Pita
  3. Maryjane Diniz A. Gomes
  4. Andréa P. Lélis da Silva
  5. Gabriel Lélis P. da Silva

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Abstract

Due to the high incidence of COVID-19 case numbers internationally, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a Public Health Emergency of global relevance, advising countries to follow protocols to combat pandemic advance through actions that can reduce spread and consequently avoid a collapse in the local health system. This study aimed to evaluate the dynamics of the evolution of new community cases, and mortality records of COVID-19 in the State of Pará, which has a subtropical climate with temperatures between 20 and 35 °C, after the implementation of social distancing by quarantine and adoption of lockdown. The follow-up was carried out by the daily data from the technical bulletins provided by the State of Pará Public Health Secretary (SESPA). On 18 March 2020, Pará notified the first case of COVID-19. After 7 weeks, the number of confirmed cases reached 4756 with 375 deaths. The results show it took 49 days for 81% of the 144 states municipalities, distributed over an area of approximately 1 248 000 km 2 to register COVID-19 cases. Temperature variations between 24.5 and 33.1 °C did not promote the decline in the new infections curve. The association between social isolation, quarantine and lockdown as an action to contain the infection was effective in reducing the region's new cases registration of COVID-19 in the short-term. However, short periods of lockdown may have promoted the virus spread among peripheral municipalities of the capital, as well as to inland regions.

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  1. Version published to 10.1017/s095026882100039x
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.10.20127886: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.10.20127886v1 on medRxiv